← All picks for May 25, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
May 25, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Chicago Cubs
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Pittsburgh Pirates (10 edges vs 4 for Chicago Cubs).
Note: the model leans Chicago Cubs even though the simple edge count favors Pittsburgh Pirates. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.67 vs Chicago Cubs -3.67 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.50 vs Chicago Cubs 2 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 3.83 vs Chicago Cubs 5.67 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.333 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.593 vs Chicago Cubs 1.167 — leans Chicago Cubs
Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.83 vs Chicago Cubs 4.69 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.42 vs Chicago Cubs 4.31 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
- Pittsburgh Pirates 101.3 vs Chicago Cubs 108.0 — leans Chicago Cubs
Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed
The starting pitching matchup between Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 4.85 vs Chicago Cubs 0.82 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 1.52 vs Chicago Cubs 1 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Pittsburgh Pirates 9.71 vs Chicago Cubs 8.18 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates -4.20 vs Chicago Cubs -1.35 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Offense & matchup — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.389 vs Chicago Cubs 0.347 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.494 vs Chicago Cubs 0.455 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.391 vs Chicago Cubs 0.343 — leans Pittsburgh Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates 0.465 vs Chicago Cubs 0.474 — roughly even
Betting Lines
Chicago Cubs +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Chicago Cubs 1, Pittsburgh Pirates 2 — Pittsburgh Pirates win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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