← All picks for May 22, 2026
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
May 22, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Miami Marlins
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 10 for Miami Marlins).
Note: the model leans Miami Marlins even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Miami Marlins 0.350 vs New York Mets 0.600 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins -1 vs New York Mets 1.10 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 4.30 vs New York Mets 4.90 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 5.30 vs New York Mets 3.80 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0.620 vs New York Mets 0.816 — leans New York Mets
Season to date — Mixed
Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between New York Mets and Miami Marlins.
- Miami Marlins 4.33 vs New York Mets 3.92 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 4.71 vs New York Mets 4.17 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0.357 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 98.1 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Miami Marlins
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Miami Marlins
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.
- Miami Marlins 3.91 vs New York Mets 0.82 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 1.42 vs New York Mets 1.09 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 9.59 vs New York Mets 7.36 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 2.92 vs New York Mets 5.14 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 2.05 vs New York Mets 3.49 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.95 vs New York Mets 1.13 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 2.92 vs New York Mets 2.50 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Miami Marlins
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.
- Miami Marlins 0.389 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.428 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.387 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.398 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0.376 vs New York Mets 0.383 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins 0.471 vs New York Mets 0.475 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins 0.818 vs New York Mets 0.557 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins -0.013 vs New York Mets 0.068 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — Mixed
Head-to-head history between New York Mets and Miami Marlins does not clearly favor either side.
- Miami Marlins 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 1, Miami Marlins 2 — Miami Marlins win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
Please gamble responsibly.