St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds

May 22, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (16 edges vs 7 for Cincinnati Reds).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Cincinnati Reds 0.350 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.550 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds -1.15 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 4.70 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.70 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 5.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.55 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.206 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.991 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds 4.42 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.38 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 4.98 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.48 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.571 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.625 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 95.5 vs St. Louis Cardinals 101.5 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds 7.36 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 1.64 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.33 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 6.95 vs St. Louis Cardinals 7.86 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds -8.77 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.04 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 10.36 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.48 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 2.47 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.74 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 6.26 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.36 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds 0.366 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.393 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.502 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.519 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.327 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.426 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.457 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.563 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.425 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.403 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.583 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.489 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.447 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.782 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.059 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.010 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds does not clearly favor either side.

Cincinnati Reds 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — roughly even

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.