New York Yankees vs New York Mets

May 16, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (21 edges vs 3 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0.450 vs New York Yankees 0.600 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.25 vs New York Yankees 1.75 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 3.60 vs New York Yankees 5.30 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 3.35 vs New York Yankees 3.55 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.667 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.296 vs New York Yankees 0.692 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 3.54 vs New York Yankees 5.07 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 3.98 vs New York Yankees 3.47 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.400 vs New York Yankees 0.462 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 87.0 vs New York Yankees 108.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 3 vs New York Yankees 2.61 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.67 vs New York Yankees 0.87 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.50 vs New York Yankees 7.55 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 4.50 vs New York Yankees -0.84 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 3.49 vs New York Yankees 1.31 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 1.13 vs New York Yankees 0.97 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 2.50 vs New York Yankees 2.13 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0 vs New York Yankees 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0.315 vs New York Yankees 0.418 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.384 vs New York Yankees 0.627 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.312 vs New York Yankees 0.404 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.371 vs New York Yankees 0.624 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.349 vs New York Yankees 0.409 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.409 vs New York Yankees 0.565 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.655 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.034 vs New York Yankees -0.010 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets -3 vs New York Yankees 3 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 3, New York Mets 6 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.