← All picks for May 16, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies
May 16, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Colorado Rockies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Arizona Diamondbacks (19 edges vs 5 for Colorado Rockies).
Note: the model leans Colorado Rockies even though the simple edge count favors Arizona Diamondbacks. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Colorado Rockies 0.300 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.400 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies -1.40 vs Arizona Diamondbacks -0.40 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 3.85 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.20 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 5.25 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.60 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 0.333 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.333 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 1.126 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1.429 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Season to date — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Colorado Rockies 4.02 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.37 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 4.96 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.77 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 0.125 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.300 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 98.3 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 97.9 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Colorado Rockies 4.10 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 3.58 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 1.25 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1.45 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 4.44 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.53 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 1.74 vs Arizona Diamondbacks -5.64 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 7.62 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.56 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 1.62 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1.37 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 4.45 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 3.45 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 0 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Colorado Rockies
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Colorado Rockies.
- Colorado Rockies 0.390 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.373 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 0.484 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.508 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 0.409 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.384 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 0.542 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.503 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 0.378 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.389 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies 0.489 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.495 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 0.690 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.586 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies -0.013 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 0.017 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Series & head-to-head — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Colorado Rockies 0 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 1 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Colorado Rockies -8 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 8 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Betting Lines
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 | O/U 11.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Arizona Diamondbacks 2, Colorado Rockies 4 — Colorado Rockies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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