← All picks for May 15, 2026
San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners
May 15, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Seattle Mariners
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Seattle Mariners (20 edges vs 4 for San Diego Padres).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Seattle Mariners
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Seattle Mariners.
- Seattle Mariners 0.600 vs San Diego Padres 0.450 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.75 vs San Diego Padres -1.05 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 4.75 vs San Diego Padres 4.05 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 4 vs San Diego Padres 5.10 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.667 vs San Diego Padres 0.333 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 1.474 vs San Diego Padres 0.658 — leans Seattle Mariners
Season to date — Mixed
Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners.
- Seattle Mariners 4.24 vs San Diego Padres 4.14 — roughly even
- Seattle Mariners 3.89 vs San Diego Padres 4.21 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.429 vs San Diego Padres 0.500 — leans San Diego Padres
- Seattle Mariners 96.6 vs San Diego Padres 94.5 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Seattle Mariners
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Seattle Mariners.
- Seattle Mariners 3.41 vs San Diego Padres 4.28 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 1.14 vs San Diego Padres 1.24 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 9.93 vs San Diego Padres 8.23 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.06 vs San Diego Padres -0.63 — leans San Diego Padres
- Seattle Mariners 1.40 vs San Diego Padres 4.57 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 1.09 vs San Diego Padres 1.20 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 1.76 vs San Diego Padres 4.25 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0 vs San Diego Padres 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Seattle Mariners
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Seattle Mariners.
- Seattle Mariners 0.387 vs San Diego Padres 0.374 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.488 vs San Diego Padres 0.473 — roughly even
- Seattle Mariners 0.383 vs San Diego Padres 0.276 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.504 vs San Diego Padres 0.399 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.409 vs San Diego Padres 0.366 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.502 vs San Diego Padres 0.447 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.800 vs San Diego Padres 0.412 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Seattle Mariners 0.022 vs San Diego Padres -0.008 — leans Seattle Mariners
Series & head-to-head — leans San Diego Padres
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.
- Seattle Mariners 0 vs San Diego Padres 1 — leans San Diego Padres
- Seattle Mariners -2.33 vs San Diego Padres 2.33 — leans San Diego Padres
Betting Lines
Seattle Mariners -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
San Diego Padres 2, Seattle Mariners 0 — San Diego Padres win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
Please gamble responsibly.