Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets

May 14, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Detroit Tigers

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (15 edges vs 11 for Detroit Tigers).

Note: the model leans Detroit Tigers even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.450 vs Detroit Tigers 0.350 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.20 vs Detroit Tigers -1.10 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.70 vs Detroit Tigers 3.95 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 3.50 vs Detroit Tigers 5.05 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Detroit Tigers 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.261 vs Detroit Tigers 0.844 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Detroit Tigers and New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.45 vs Detroit Tigers 4.16 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 3.95 vs Detroit Tigers 4.28 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.400 vs Detroit Tigers 0.273 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 87.0 vs Detroit Tigers 101.0 — leans Detroit Tigers

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.10 vs Detroit Tigers 3.37 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.97 vs Detroit Tigers 1.02 — roughly even
New York Mets 12.10 vs Detroit Tigers 6.75 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -2.09 vs Detroit Tigers -0.33 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.49 vs Detroit Tigers 2.89 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 1.13 vs Detroit Tigers 1.25 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.50 vs Detroit Tigers 2.96 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs Detroit Tigers 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Detroit Tigers

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Detroit Tigers.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Detroit Tigers 0.388 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.384 vs Detroit Tigers 0.499 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.338 vs Detroit Tigers 0.415 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.439 vs Detroit Tigers 0.542 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.359 vs Detroit Tigers 0.371 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.440 vs Detroit Tigers 0.479 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.678 vs Detroit Tigers 0.829 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.043 vs Detroit Tigers -0.017 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs Detroit Tigers 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.50 vs Detroit Tigers -4.50 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Detroit Tigers 4, New York Mets 9 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.