Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets

May 12, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Detroit Tigers

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Detroit Tigers (14 edges vs 7 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between Detroit Tigers and New York Mets, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

New York Mets 0.400 vs Detroit Tigers 0.400 — roughly even
New York Mets -0.30 vs Detroit Tigers -0.55 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.35 vs Detroit Tigers 4.35 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 3.65 vs Detroit Tigers 4.90 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.333 vs Detroit Tigers 0.333 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.498 vs Detroit Tigers 0.766 — leans Detroit Tigers

Season to date — leans Detroit Tigers

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Detroit Tigers.

New York Mets 3.31 vs Detroit Tigers 4.27 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 4.05 vs Detroit Tigers 4.17 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.300 vs Detroit Tigers 0.364 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 87.0 vs Detroit Tigers 101.0 — leans Detroit Tigers

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 3.21 vs Detroit Tigers 5.23 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.25 vs Detroit Tigers 1.79 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 9 vs Detroit Tigers 10.45 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets -0.30 vs Detroit Tigers -5.98 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 3.49 vs Detroit Tigers 2.89 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 1.13 vs Detroit Tigers 1.25 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2.50 vs Detroit Tigers 2.96 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs Detroit Tigers 0 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Detroit Tigers

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Detroit Tigers.

New York Mets 0.315 vs Detroit Tigers 0.388 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.384 vs Detroit Tigers 0.499 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.338 vs Detroit Tigers 0.415 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.439 vs Detroit Tigers 0.542 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.371 vs Detroit Tigers 0.389 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.466 vs Detroit Tigers 0.479 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.678 vs Detroit Tigers 0.800 — leans Detroit Tigers
New York Mets 0.056 vs Detroit Tigers 0.000 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Detroit Tigers and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.500 vs Detroit Tigers 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets 0 vs Detroit Tigers 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Detroit Tigers 2, New York Mets 10 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.