← All picks for May 12, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox
May 12, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (12 edges vs 11 for Boston Red Sox).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Boston Red Sox 0.450 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 0.15 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.50 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 3.75 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.70 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 3.60 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.20 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 0.333 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 0.267 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.560 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Boston Red Sox 3.80 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.05 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 4.10 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.81 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 0.273 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.400 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 92.6 vs Philadelphia Phillies 91.8 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Boston Red Sox
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.
- Boston Red Sox 1.59 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.33 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 0.97 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.19 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 5.56 vs Philadelphia Phillies 12.33 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox -3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.05 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 3.28 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.09 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 1.46 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.59 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 4.03 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.33 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Boston Red Sox
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Boston Red Sox.
- Boston Red Sox 0.368 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.337 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 0.419 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.437 — roughly even
- Boston Red Sox 0.384 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.263 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 0.396 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.318 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 0.370 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.381 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 0.413 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.489 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox 0.714 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.539 — leans Boston Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox 0.002 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.045 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Series & head-to-head — Mixed
Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox does not clearly favor either side.
- Boston Red Sox 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
- Boston Red Sox 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even
Betting Lines
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Philadelphia Phillies 2, Boston Red Sox 1 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
Please gamble responsibly.