← All picks for May 11, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
May 11, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Tampa Bay Rays
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Tampa Bay Rays (14 edges vs 8 for Toronto Blue Jays).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.550 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.700 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 1 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.15 — roughly even
- Toronto Blue Jays 4.55 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.55 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays 3.55 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.40 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.667 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays 1.245 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.376 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Season to date — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Toronto Blue Jays 4 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.28 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 4.29 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.77 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.667 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.500 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays 97.0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 98.5 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Toronto Blue Jays 4.08 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.81 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 1.26 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.86 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 5.97 vs Tampa Bay Rays 10.52 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays -1.17 vs Tampa Bay Rays -3.17 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 3.98 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.40 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 1.28 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.03 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 1.77 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.98 — roughly even
- Toronto Blue Jays 0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.367 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.385 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.462 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.457 — roughly even
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.398 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.383 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.472 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.357 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.397 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.406 — roughly even
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.491 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.448 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.637 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.910 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays 0.030 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.021 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Series & head-to-head — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Toronto Blue Jays 0 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays -2.67 vs Tampa Bay Rays 2.67 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
Betting Lines
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Tampa Bay Rays 8, Toronto Blue Jays 5 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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