← All picks for May 11, 2026
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
May 11, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Houston Astros
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Seattle Mariners (14 edges vs 5 for Houston Astros).
Note: the model leans Houston Astros even though the simple edge count favors Seattle Mariners. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Seattle Mariners
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Seattle Mariners.
- Houston Astros 0.400 vs Seattle Mariners 0.550 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros -0.85 vs Seattle Mariners 0.15 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 4 vs Seattle Mariners 4.45 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 4.85 vs Seattle Mariners 4.30 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 0.333 vs Seattle Mariners 0.333 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 0.917 vs Seattle Mariners 1.049 — leans Seattle Mariners
Season to date — Mixed
Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros.
- Houston Astros 4.67 vs Seattle Mariners 4.07 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 5.48 vs Seattle Mariners 4.02 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 0.286 vs Seattle Mariners 0.667 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 107.6 vs Seattle Mariners 96.6 — leans Houston Astros
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Seattle Mariners
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Seattle Mariners.
- Houston Astros 3.52 vs Seattle Mariners 2.73 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 1.24 vs Seattle Mariners 1.18 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 11.15 vs Seattle Mariners 6 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 0 vs Seattle Mariners 1.14 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 5.97 vs Seattle Mariners 1.40 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 1.57 vs Seattle Mariners 1.09 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 5.12 vs Seattle Mariners 1.76 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 0 vs Seattle Mariners 0 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — Mixed
The offensive matchup is closely contested between Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros.
- Houston Astros 0.388 vs Seattle Mariners 0.387 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 0.499 vs Seattle Mariners 0.488 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 0.391 vs Seattle Mariners 0.383 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 0.503 vs Seattle Mariners 0.504 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 0.404 vs Seattle Mariners 0.403 — roughly even
- Houston Astros 0.625 vs Seattle Mariners 0.506 — leans Houston Astros
- Houston Astros 0.400 vs Seattle Mariners 0.916 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros 0.015 vs Seattle Mariners 0.015 — roughly even
Series & head-to-head — leans Seattle Mariners
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Seattle Mariners.
- Houston Astros 0 vs Seattle Mariners 1 — leans Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros -3.25 vs Seattle Mariners 3.25 — leans Seattle Mariners
Betting Lines
Seattle Mariners +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Seattle Mariners 3, Houston Astros 1 — Seattle Mariners win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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