New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks

May 10, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Arizona Diamondbacks (14 edges vs 11 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Arizona Diamondbacks. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Arizona Diamondbacks 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.400 — roughly even
Arizona Diamondbacks -0.95 vs New York Mets -0.15 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 4.45 vs New York Mets 3.35 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 5.40 vs New York Mets 3.50 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.333 — roughly even
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.375 vs New York Mets 0.597 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks 4.32 vs New York Mets 3.37 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 5 vs New York Mets 4.02 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.462 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Arizona Diamondbacks 97.9 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Arizona Diamondbacks 3.58 vs New York Mets 3 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.45 vs New York Mets 0.67 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 5.53 vs New York Mets 4.50 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks -5.64 vs New York Mets 4.50 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 5.56 vs New York Mets 3.49 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.37 vs New York Mets 1.13 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 3.45 vs New York Mets 2.50 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0 vs New York Mets 8 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Offense & matchup — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks 0.373 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.508 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.384 vs New York Mets 0.312 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.503 vs New York Mets 0.371 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.373 vs New York Mets 0.335 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.517 vs New York Mets 0.379 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.841 vs New York Mets 0.927 — leans New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.000 vs New York Mets 0.020 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.400 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.80 vs New York Mets -1.80 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 1, Arizona Diamondbacks 5 — Arizona Diamondbacks win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.