← All picks for May 9, 2026
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins
May 9, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Washington Nationals
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Washington Nationals (16 edges vs 8 for Miami Marlins).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Washington Nationals
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Washington Nationals.
- Miami Marlins 0.400 vs Washington Nationals 0.500 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins -0.45 vs Washington Nationals 0.05 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 3.75 vs Washington Nationals 5.05 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 4.20 vs Washington Nationals 5 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.333 vs Washington Nationals 1 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 0.889 vs Washington Nationals 1.650 — leans Washington Nationals
Season to date — leans Washington Nationals
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Washington Nationals.
- Miami Marlins 4.18 vs Washington Nationals 5.33 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 4.36 vs Washington Nationals 5.56 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.357 vs Washington Nationals 0.714 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 98.1 vs Washington Nationals 96.4 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Washington Nationals
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Washington Nationals.
- Miami Marlins 2.70 vs Washington Nationals 0 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 0.98 vs Washington Nationals 2.18 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 6.41 vs Washington Nationals 9.82 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 4.03 vs Washington Nationals 0 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 2.05 vs Washington Nationals 1.37 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 0.95 vs Washington Nationals 1.03 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins 2.92 vs Washington Nationals 2.83 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins 10 vs Washington Nationals 7 — leans Washington Nationals
Offense & matchup — leans Miami Marlins
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.
- Miami Marlins 0.389 vs Washington Nationals 0.345 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.428 vs Washington Nationals 0.404 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.315 vs Washington Nationals 0.270 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.318 vs Washington Nationals 0.298 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.406 vs Washington Nationals 0.379 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.466 vs Washington Nationals 0.453 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins 0.557 vs Washington Nationals 0.927 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins 0.017 vs Washington Nationals 0.033 — leans Washington Nationals
Series & head-to-head — leans Washington Nationals
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Washington Nationals.
- Miami Marlins 0 vs Washington Nationals 1 — leans Washington Nationals
- Miami Marlins -1 vs Washington Nationals 1 — leans Washington Nationals
Betting Lines
Miami Marlins -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Washington Nationals 7, Miami Marlins 8 — Miami Marlins win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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