← All picks for May 9, 2026
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks
May 9, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans New York Mets
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Arizona Diamondbacks (13 edges vs 12 for New York Mets).
Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Arizona Diamondbacks. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.400 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks -0.95 vs New York Mets -0.20 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 4.55 vs New York Mets 3.40 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.50 vs New York Mets 3.60 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.220 vs New York Mets 1.471 — leans New York Mets
Season to date — Mixed
Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 4.38 vs New York Mets 3.42 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.11 vs New York Mets 4.08 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.417 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 97.9 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 9.26 vs New York Mets 1.80 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 2.19 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 6.94 vs New York Mets 6.60 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks -4.70 vs New York Mets 0.18 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5.56 vs New York Mets 3.49 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 1.37 vs New York Mets 1.13 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 3.45 vs New York Mets 2.50 — leans New York Mets
- Arizona Diamondbacks 3.7 vs New York Mets 16 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Offense & matchup — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.373 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.508 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.384 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.503 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.381 vs New York Mets 0.366 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.507 vs New York Mets 0.466 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.725 vs New York Mets 0.557 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.008 vs New York Mets 0.050 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Arizona Diamondbacks 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
- Arizona Diamondbacks 2 vs New York Mets -2 — leans Arizona Diamondbacks
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 1, Arizona Diamondbacks 2 — Arizona Diamondbacks win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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