New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies

May 7, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Colorado Rockies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 10 for Colorado Rockies).

Note: the model leans Colorado Rockies even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Colorado Rockies 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies -1 vs New York Mets -0.85 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 4.25 vs New York Mets 3.50 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 5.25 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 0 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 1.020 vs New York Mets 1.810 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between New York Mets and Colorado Rockies.

Colorado Rockies 4.13 vs New York Mets 3.57 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 4.89 vs New York Mets 4.22 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 0.250 vs New York Mets 0.400 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 98.3 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Colorado Rockies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Colorado Rockies 4.07 vs New York Mets 4.26 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 1.36 vs New York Mets 1.26 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 4.44 vs New York Mets 12.79 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 2.69 vs New York Mets 0 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 7.62 vs New York Mets 3.49 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 1.62 vs New York Mets 1.13 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 4.45 vs New York Mets 2.50 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 19.7 vs New York Mets 20 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Colorado Rockies

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Colorado Rockies.

Colorado Rockies 0.390 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.484 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.374 vs New York Mets 0.312 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.480 vs New York Mets 0.371 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.390 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.484 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.600 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 0 vs New York Mets 0 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Colorado Rockies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies -0.17 vs New York Mets 0.17 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 10.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 2, Colorado Rockies 6 — Colorado Rockies win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.