New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies

May 6, 2026 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Colorado Rockies (14 edges vs 11 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Colorado Rockies. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between New York Mets and Colorado Rockies, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Colorado Rockies 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.300 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies -0.75 vs New York Mets -1.10 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 4 vs New York Mets 3 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 4.75 vs New York Mets 4.10 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 0 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 0.667 vs New York Mets 1 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans Colorado Rockies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Colorado Rockies.

Colorado Rockies 4 vs New York Mets 3.30 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 4.63 vs New York Mets 4.08 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 0.250 vs New York Mets 0.300 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 98.3 vs New York Mets 87.0 — leans Colorado Rockies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Colorado Rockies 4.29 vs New York Mets 3.21 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 1.43 vs New York Mets 1.25 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 6 vs New York Mets 9 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies -1.26 vs New York Mets -0.30 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 7.62 vs New York Mets 3.49 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 1.62 vs New York Mets 1.13 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 4.45 vs New York Mets 2.50 — leans New York Mets
Colorado Rockies 19.7 vs New York Mets 20 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Colorado Rockies

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Colorado Rockies.

Colorado Rockies 0.390 vs New York Mets 0.315 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.484 vs New York Mets 0.384 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.374 vs New York Mets 0.338 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.480 vs New York Mets 0.439 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.406 vs New York Mets 0.363 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.512 vs New York Mets 0.456 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.684 vs New York Mets 0.557 — leans Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 0.016 vs New York Mets 0.048 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Colorado Rockies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Colorado Rockies.

Colorado Rockies 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Colorado Rockies 0.67 vs New York Mets -0.67 — leans Colorado Rockies

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 11.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 10, Colorado Rockies 5 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.