← All picks for September 28, 2025
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers
September 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Milwaukee Brewers
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Milwaukee Brewers (13 edges vs 12 for Cincinnati Reds).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Cincinnati Reds
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.500 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.650 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.40 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.55 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 4.25 vs Cincinnati Reds 3.80 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 3.85 vs Cincinnati Reds 3.25 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.333 vs Cincinnati Reds 1 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.627 vs Cincinnati Reds 1.053 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Season to date — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Milwaukee Brewers 4.89 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.38 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 3.85 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.18 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.625 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.545 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 101.4 vs Cincinnati Reds 96.9 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed
The starting pitching matchup between Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.
- Milwaukee Brewers 2.67 vs Cincinnati Reds 3.41 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.89 vs Cincinnati Reds 1 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 13.67 vs Cincinnati Reds 8.07 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers -4.50 vs Cincinnati Reds -1.21 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 2.51 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.76 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 1.19 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.68 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 4.32 vs Cincinnati Reds 2.09 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 23.7 vs Cincinnati Reds 19.3 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Offense & matchup — leans Cincinnati Reds
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.391 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.347 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.434 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.451 — roughly even
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.317 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.332 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.300 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.391 — leans Cincinnati Reds
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.388 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.388 — roughly even
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.490 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.495 — roughly even
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.557 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.290 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers -0.003 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.041 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Series & head-to-head — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.583 vs Cincinnati Reds 0.417 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers 0.67 vs Cincinnati Reds -0.67 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
Betting Lines
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Cincinnati Reds 2, Milwaukee Brewers 4 — Milwaukee Brewers win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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