Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

September 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (23 edges vs 4 for Baltimore Orioles).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.750 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.500 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.30 vs Baltimore Orioles -1.50 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.20 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.05 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.90 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.55 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.218 vs Baltimore Orioles 1.202 — roughly even

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.22 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.04 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.22 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.70 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.800 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.375 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 107.3 vs Baltimore Orioles 95.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 2.89 vs Baltimore Orioles 2.25 — leans Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees 1.21 vs Baltimore Orioles 1 — leans Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees 5.46 vs Baltimore Orioles 12.54 — leans Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees -1.04 vs Baltimore Orioles 2.10 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.48 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.80 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.02 vs Baltimore Orioles 1.52 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.21 vs Baltimore Orioles 3.73 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 14 vs Baltimore Orioles 19.7 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.405 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.332 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.518 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.370 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.457 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.343 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.523 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.421 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.402 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.369 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.579 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.471 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.649 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.539 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.002 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.037 — leans Baltimore Orioles

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.667 vs Baltimore Orioles 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.67 vs Baltimore Orioles -3.67 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (Fanatics)

Final Score

Baltimore Orioles 2, New York Yankees 3 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.