New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

September 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Miami Marlins

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (15 edges vs 11 for Miami Marlins).

Note: the model leans Miami Marlins even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Miami Marlins

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.

Miami Marlins 0.650 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.30 vs New York Mets -0.75 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 4.80 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 4.50 vs New York Mets 5.10 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.417 vs New York Mets 1.149 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Miami Marlins 4.35 vs New York Mets 4.67 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 4.93 vs New York Mets 4.34 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.545 vs New York Mets 0.273 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 97.5 vs New York Mets 103.4 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between New York Mets and Miami Marlins grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

Miami Marlins 6.20 vs New York Mets 7.64 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 1.62 vs New York Mets 1.42 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 10.58 vs New York Mets 9.68 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.29 vs New York Mets 1.42 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 3.70 vs New York Mets 1.82 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 1.27 vs New York Mets 0.81 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 5.69 vs New York Mets 2.53 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 19.3 vs New York Mets 23.7 — leans Miami Marlins

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Miami Marlins 0.376 vs New York Mets 0.349 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.468 vs New York Mets 0.486 — roughly even
Miami Marlins 0.338 vs New York Mets 0.369 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.448 vs New York Mets 0.470 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.377 vs New York Mets 0.402 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.487 vs New York Mets 0.542 — leans New York Mets
Miami Marlins 0.922 vs New York Mets 0.800 — leans Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 0.001 vs New York Mets 0.053 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Miami Marlins 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
Miami Marlins -0.67 vs New York Mets 0.67 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 0, Miami Marlins 4 — Miami Marlins win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.