St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

September 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago Cubs

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (25 edges vs 1 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 1.05 vs St. Louis Cardinals -1.35 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 4.60 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.80 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 3.55 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.15 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 1.739 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.614 — leans Chicago Cubs

Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 4.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.13 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 3.98 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.50 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.273 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 102.5 vs St. Louis Cardinals 96.0 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Chicago Cubs

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 3.80 vs St. Louis Cardinals 7.11 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 1.10 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.89 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 4.56 vs St. Louis Cardinals 9.95 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs -1.82 vs St. Louis Cardinals 10.38 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 3.54 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6.35 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 1.18 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.54 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 3.84 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.42 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 19.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 18.7 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 0.386 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.368 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.521 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.408 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.396 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.370 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.754 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.493 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.375 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.352 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.482 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.422 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.655 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.498 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs -0.011 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.015 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans Chicago Cubs

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 0.583 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.417 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 3.17 vs St. Louis Cardinals -3.17 — leans Chicago Cubs

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (Bovada)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 0, Chicago Cubs 2 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.