← All picks for September 26, 2025
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
September 26, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans New York Mets
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 10 for Miami Marlins).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Miami Marlins
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Miami Marlins.
- Miami Marlins 0.600 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins -0.20 vs New York Mets -0.95 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 4.90 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 5.10 vs New York Mets 5.30 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0.476 vs New York Mets 1.533 — leans New York Mets
Season to date — leans New York Mets
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Miami Marlins 4.37 vs New York Mets 4.69 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 4.94 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.273 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 97.8 vs New York Mets 103.6 — leans New York Mets
Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed
The starting pitching matchup between New York Mets and Miami Marlins grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.
- Miami Marlins 3.21 vs New York Mets 3.94 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.86 vs New York Mets 1.19 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 8.82 vs New York Mets 8.44 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins -2.40 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 3.14 vs New York Mets 1.83 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 1.01 vs New York Mets 0.76 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 5.96 vs New York Mets 2.84 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 28.7 vs New York Mets 29.3 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Miami Marlins 0.380 vs New York Mets 0.356 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.484 vs New York Mets 0.489 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins 0.381 vs New York Mets 0.369 — leans Miami Marlins
- Miami Marlins 0.519 vs New York Mets 0.564 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0.389 vs New York Mets 0.399 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0.501 vs New York Mets 0.535 — leans New York Mets
- Miami Marlins 0.661 vs New York Mets 0.702 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins 0.009 vs New York Mets 0.044 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Miami Marlins 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.500 — roughly even
- Miami Marlins -0.70 vs New York Mets 0.70 — leans New York Mets
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 2, Miami Marlins 6 — Miami Marlins win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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