← All picks for September 26, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
September 26, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (15 edges vs 8 for St. Louis Cardinals).
Note: the model leans St. Louis Cardinals even though the simple edge count favors Chicago Cubs. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 0.450 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.35 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 4.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.95 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 3.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs 1.725 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.519 — leans Chicago Cubs
Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 4.80 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.15 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 4.01 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.44 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.400 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 101.7 vs St. Louis Cardinals 96.3 — leans Chicago Cubs
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Chicago Cubs 4.78 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.77 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs 1.22 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.15 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 9.23 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.19 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 4.36 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.35 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs 5.14 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.48 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs 1.29 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.03 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs 6.72 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.52 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs 18 vs St. Louis Cardinals 24.3 — leans Chicago Cubs
Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 0.376 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.373 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.482 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.420 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.317 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.442 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs 0.515 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.544 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs 0.376 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.346 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.495 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.441 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.539 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.551 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.000 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.027 — leans Chicago Cubs
Series & head-to-head — leans Chicago Cubs
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 2.30 vs St. Louis Cardinals -2.30 — leans Chicago Cubs
Betting Lines
Chicago Cubs -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (LowVig.ag)
Final Score
St. Louis Cardinals 1, Chicago Cubs 12 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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