← All picks for September 25, 2025
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
September 25, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans New York Mets
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (11 edges vs 10 for Chicago Cubs).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Chicago Cubs
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.60 vs New York Mets -0.75 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 4.20 vs New York Mets 4.55 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 3.60 vs New York Mets 5.30 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.333 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 1.349 vs New York Mets 1.026 — leans Chicago Cubs
Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 4.79 vs New York Mets 4.66 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 3.98 vs New York Mets 4.35 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.273 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 101.7 vs New York Mets 103.5 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Chicago Cubs 4.66 vs New York Mets 1.19 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 1.03 vs New York Mets 1.09 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 7.45 vs New York Mets 9.20 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs -1.46 vs New York Mets 0.61 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 4.71 vs New York Mets 1.38 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 1.29 vs New York Mets 0.89 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 6.34 vs New York Mets 2.70 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 14 vs New York Mets 24.7 — leans Chicago Cubs
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Chicago Cubs 0.379 vs New York Mets 0.361 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.469 vs New York Mets 0.502 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.359 vs New York Mets 0.353 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.514 vs New York Mets 0.434 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.388 vs New York Mets 0.387 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.506 vs New York Mets 0.519 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.406 vs New York Mets 0.794 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.009 vs New York Mets 0.026 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Chicago Cubs 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.600 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs -0.60 vs New York Mets 0.60 — leans New York Mets
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 8, Chicago Cubs 5 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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