← All picks for September 24, 2025
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
September 24, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans New York Mets
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (13 edges vs 10 for Chicago Cubs).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed
Recent form factors are roughly even between New York Mets and Chicago Cubs, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.
- Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.400 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.30 vs New York Mets -0.30 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 4.05 vs New York Mets 4.90 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 3.75 vs New York Mets 5.20 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.823 vs New York Mets 0.952 — leans New York Mets
Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 4.76 vs New York Mets 4.67 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 3.99 vs New York Mets 4.31 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.364 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 101.7 vs New York Mets 103.6 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed
The starting pitching matchup between New York Mets and Chicago Cubs grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.
- Chicago Cubs 5.47 vs New York Mets 7.71 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 1.25 vs New York Mets 1.77 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 5.81 vs New York Mets 10.61 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs -1.35 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 5.40 vs New York Mets 1.11 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 1.42 vs New York Mets 0.71 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 7.03 vs New York Mets 2.11 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 14 vs New York Mets 24.7 — leans Chicago Cubs
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Chicago Cubs 0.376 vs New York Mets 0.356 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.482 vs New York Mets 0.489 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.317 vs New York Mets 0.390 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.515 vs New York Mets 0.507 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.385 vs New York Mets 0.402 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.532 vs New York Mets 0.533 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.690 vs New York Mets 0.806 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.008 vs New York Mets 0.046 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Chicago Cubs 0.250 vs New York Mets 0.750 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs -2.50 vs New York Mets 2.50 — leans New York Mets
Betting Lines
Chicago Cubs -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 3, Chicago Cubs 10 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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