← All picks for September 23, 2025
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
September 23, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Chicago Cubs
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (12 edges vs 9 for Chicago Cubs).
Note: the model leans Chicago Cubs even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed
Recent form factors are roughly even between New York Mets and Chicago Cubs, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.
- Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs New York Mets 0.350 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.35 vs New York Mets -0.60 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 3.95 vs New York Mets 4.50 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 3.60 vs New York Mets 5.10 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.591 vs New York Mets 1.259 — leans New York Mets
Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.
- Chicago Cubs 4.75 vs New York Mets 4.65 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 3.96 vs New York Mets 4.30 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.556 vs New York Mets 0.300 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 101.5 vs New York Mets 103.6 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed
The starting pitching matchup between New York Mets and Chicago Cubs grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.
- Chicago Cubs 1.32 vs New York Mets 9 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.77 vs New York Mets 1.96 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 8.23 vs New York Mets 8.61 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.87 vs New York Mets -1.31 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 3.32 vs New York Mets 1.50 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.89 vs New York Mets 0.87 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 4.89 vs New York Mets 3.20 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 15 vs New York Mets 25 — leans Chicago Cubs
Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Chicago Cubs 0.371 vs New York Mets 0.370 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.468 vs New York Mets 0.492 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.379 vs New York Mets 0.380 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.457 vs New York Mets 0.602 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.379 vs New York Mets 0.390 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs 0.495 vs New York Mets 0.511 — roughly even
- Chicago Cubs 0.957 vs New York Mets 0.563 — leans Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs 0.007 vs New York Mets 0.020 — leans New York Mets
Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.
- Chicago Cubs 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
- Chicago Cubs -2.67 vs New York Mets 2.67 — leans New York Mets
Betting Lines
New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
New York Mets 9, Chicago Cubs 7 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
Please gamble responsibly.