← All picks for September 16, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers
September 16, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (13 edges vs 11 for Los Angeles Dodgers).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed
Recent form factors are roughly even between Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.550 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.700 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 1.60 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.75 — roughly even
- Los Angeles Dodgers 4.95 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.70 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 3.35 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.95 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — roughly even
- Los Angeles Dodgers 1.886 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.994 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Season to date — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 5.11 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.77 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 4.31 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.95 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.700 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.556 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 105.6 vs Philadelphia Phillies 104.0 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 4.09 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.62 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 1.05 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.14 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 11.86 vs Philadelphia Phillies 8.07 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 6.64 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.64 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 4.26 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.21 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 1.14 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.47 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 4.52 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.31 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 23.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 16 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.391 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.412 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.507 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.587 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.420 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.480 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.637 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.672 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.397 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.395 — roughly even
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.536 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.514 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.678 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.788 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.006 vs Philadelphia Phillies -0.017 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.250 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.750 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers -0.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.25 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Lines
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
Philadelphia Phillies 9, Los Angeles Dodgers 6 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
Please gamble responsibly.