San Diego Padres vs New York Mets

September 16, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans San Diego Padres

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned San Diego Padres (16 edges vs 6 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans San Diego Padres

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

New York Mets 0.400 vs San Diego Padres 0.400 — roughly even
New York Mets -0.05 vs San Diego Padres 0 — roughly even
New York Mets 5.55 vs San Diego Padres 4.75 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.60 vs San Diego Padres 4.75 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 0.333 vs San Diego Padres 0.667 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 0.601 vs San Diego Padres 1.544 — leans San Diego Padres

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.60 vs San Diego Padres 4.25 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.30 vs San Diego Padres 3.83 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 0.500 vs San Diego Padres 0.444 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 103.1 vs San Diego Padres 97.4 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans San Diego Padres

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

New York Mets 3.96 vs San Diego Padres 4.12 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.36 vs San Diego Padres 1.17 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 7.56 vs San Diego Padres 7.88 — roughly even
New York Mets -0.47 vs San Diego Padres -2.51 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 7.46 vs San Diego Padres 3.92 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 1.70 vs San Diego Padres 1.06 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 4.68 vs San Diego Padres 2.42 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 22.3 vs San Diego Padres 20.7 — leans San Diego Padres

Offense & matchup — leans San Diego Padres

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

New York Mets 0.400 vs San Diego Padres 0.369 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.517 vs San Diego Padres 0.483 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.303 vs San Diego Padres 0.358 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 0.387 vs San Diego Padres 0.486 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 0.386 vs San Diego Padres 0.409 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets 0.514 vs San Diego Padres 0.518 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.678 vs San Diego Padres 0.655 — roughly even
New York Mets -0.014 vs San Diego Padres 0.040 — leans San Diego Padres

Series & head-to-head — leans San Diego Padres

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

New York Mets 0 vs San Diego Padres 1 — leans San Diego Padres
New York Mets -4 vs San Diego Padres 4 — leans San Diego Padres

Betting Lines

San Diego Padres +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

San Diego Padres 3, New York Mets 8 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.