New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

September 11, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (14 edges vs 9 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.650 vs New York Mets 0.450 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.60 vs New York Mets 0.45 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 5.50 vs New York Mets 6.20 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 3.90 vs New York Mets 5.75 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.273 vs New York Mets 0.323 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.72 vs New York Mets 4.63 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 3.90 vs New York Mets 4.29 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.818 vs New York Mets 0.385 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 103.5 vs New York Mets 103.7 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 3.14 vs New York Mets 7.77 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.05 vs New York Mets 1.77 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 12.24 vs New York Mets 10.36 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -0.74 vs New York Mets -3.98 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 4.50 vs New York Mets 7.27 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.50 vs New York Mets 1.62 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 5.29 vs New York Mets 3.73 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 16 vs New York Mets 17.3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.414 vs New York Mets 0.432 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.550 vs New York Mets 0.569 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.403 vs New York Mets 0.458 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.560 vs New York Mets 0.512 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.395 vs New York Mets 0.411 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.527 vs New York Mets 0.547 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.788 vs New York Mets 0.794 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies -0.018 vs New York Mets -0.021 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.417 vs New York Mets 0.583 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies -0.08 vs New York Mets 0.08 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 4, Philadelphia Phillies 6 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.