New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

September 10, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (15 edges vs 10 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors Philadelphia Phillies. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.650 vs New York Mets 0.450 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.30 vs New York Mets 0.80 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 5.25 vs New York Mets 6.25 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 3.95 vs New York Mets 5.45 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 vs New York Mets 0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.889 vs New York Mets 0.267 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 4.68 vs New York Mets 4.64 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 3.91 vs New York Mets 4.24 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 0.818 vs New York Mets 0.385 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 103.1 vs New York Mets 103.7 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies 3.69 vs New York Mets 4.38 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.29 vs New York Mets 1.46 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 9.95 vs New York Mets 7.30 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -0.78 vs New York Mets 1.89 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 3.38 vs New York Mets 5.40 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 1.12 vs New York Mets 1.50 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 4.10 vs New York Mets 3.46 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 16 vs New York Mets 13.3 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.403 vs New York Mets 0.432 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.546 vs New York Mets 0.572 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.500 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.513 vs New York Mets 0.590 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.373 vs New York Mets 0.383 — roughly even
Philadelphia Phillies 0.471 vs New York Mets 0.509 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies 0.782 vs New York Mets 0.696 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -0.029 vs New York Mets -0.049 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies 0.364 vs New York Mets 0.636 — leans New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies -0.82 vs New York Mets 0.82 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Mets 3, Philadelphia Phillies 11 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.