New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds

September 5, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (17 edges vs 8 for Cincinnati Reds).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Cincinnati Reds 0.400 vs New York Mets 0.550 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds -0.55 vs New York Mets 1.80 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 4.70 vs New York Mets 7.10 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 5.25 vs New York Mets 5.30 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.333 vs New York Mets 0.667 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 1.631 vs New York Mets 1.127 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Cincinnati Reds 4.47 vs New York Mets 4.71 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 4.30 vs New York Mets 4.23 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.455 vs New York Mets 0.556 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 97.4 vs New York Mets 104.2 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Cincinnati Reds 4.45 vs New York Mets 7.56 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.12 vs New York Mets 1.68 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 8.60 vs New York Mets 11.16 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds -0.38 vs New York Mets 0.72 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 7.82 vs New York Mets 5.67 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 1.74 vs New York Mets 1.56 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 6.81 vs New York Mets 3.69 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 22.3 vs New York Mets 23 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

Cincinnati Reds 0.380 vs New York Mets 0.450 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 0.484 vs New York Mets 0.622 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 0.347 vs New York Mets 0.473 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 0.429 vs New York Mets 0.534 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 0.389 vs New York Mets 0.407 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 0.485 vs New York Mets 0.537 — leans New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds 0.904 vs New York Mets 0.655 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.009 vs New York Mets -0.043 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Series & head-to-head — leans Cincinnati Reds

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 0.667 vs New York Mets 0.333 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 2 vs New York Mets -2 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Betting Lines

New York Mets +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (MyBookie.ag)

Final Score

New York Mets 5, Cincinnati Reds 4 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.