St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds

August 31, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Cincinnati Reds

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cincinnati Reds (12 edges vs 11 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Cincinnati Reds 0.400 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.450 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds -0.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.95 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.15 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.25 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 4.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.20 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.643 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.176 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 4.38 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.19 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.19 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.40 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.375 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.625 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 96.8 vs St. Louis Cardinals 96.8 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

Cincinnati Reds 1.95 vs St. Louis Cardinals 9.82 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.05 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.05 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 10.08 vs St. Louis Cardinals 7.77 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.65 vs St. Louis Cardinals -4.12 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 3.79 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.71 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 1.47 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.24 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 5.52 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.67 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 16 vs St. Louis Cardinals 21 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Offense & matchup — leans Cincinnati Reds

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 0.369 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.349 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.459 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.414 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.328 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.330 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.368 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.401 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.385 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.363 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.475 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.443 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.302 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.649 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.016 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.013 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds 0.300 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.700 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds -1.10 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.10 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | O/U 11.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 4, Cincinnati Reds 7 — Cincinnati Reds win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.