St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds

August 29, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Cincinnati Reds

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cincinnati Reds (16 edges vs 8 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds 0.400 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.450 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds -0.65 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.80 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 3.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.20 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 4.50 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 0.346 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.635 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Season to date — leans Cincinnati Reds

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 4.39 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.17 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 4.17 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.41 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.571 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 96.5 vs St. Louis Cardinals 96.7 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Cincinnati Reds

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 3.16 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.40 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.38 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 7.36 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6.23 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds -2.27 vs St. Louis Cardinals -3.91 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds 3.13 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.68 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 1.22 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.32 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 3.45 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.01 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 23 vs St. Louis Cardinals 16.7 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans Cincinnati Reds

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 0.351 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.360 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.429 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.416 — roughly even
Cincinnati Reds 0.337 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.321 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.394 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.328 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.398 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.354 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.505 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.434 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.933 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.673 — leans Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 0.047 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.006 — leans Cincinnati Reds

Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds 0.375 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.625 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds -0.88 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.88 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Lines

Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (Fanatics)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 7, Cincinnati Reds 5 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.