Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

August 28, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (27 edges vs 1 for Miami Marlins).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Mets

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.450 vs Miami Marlins 0.300 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.25 vs Miami Marlins -1.75 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 6 vs Miami Marlins 4.05 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.75 vs Miami Marlins 5.80 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1 vs Miami Marlins 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.389 vs Miami Marlins 0.412 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.54 vs Miami Marlins 4.23 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 4.07 vs Miami Marlins 4.85 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.545 vs Miami Marlins 0.273 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 103.0 vs Miami Marlins 97.5 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.56 vs Miami Marlins 7.36 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.52 vs Miami Marlins 1.64 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 7.99 vs Miami Marlins 6.55 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -1.51 vs Miami Marlins 0.32 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.19 vs Miami Marlins 6.23 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.38 vs Miami Marlins 1.75 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 3.22 vs Miami Marlins 7.62 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 17.3 vs Miami Marlins 21.7 — leans New York Mets

Offense & matchup — leans New York Mets

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.425 vs Miami Marlins 0.354 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.591 vs Miami Marlins 0.429 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.432 vs Miami Marlins 0.345 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.632 vs Miami Marlins 0.441 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.399 vs Miami Marlins 0.377 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.540 vs Miami Marlins 0.507 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.812 vs Miami Marlins 0.453 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.026 vs Miami Marlins 0.023 — leans Miami Marlins

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 0.667 vs Miami Marlins 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.17 vs Miami Marlins -1.17 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Miami Marlins 7, New York Mets 4 — Miami Marlins win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.