Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

August 25, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (18 edges vs 7 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 0.350 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.700 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.75 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 5.85 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.15 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 5.60 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.40 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — roughly even
New York Mets 1.368 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.841 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 4.46 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.64 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 4.11 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.88 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.364 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.600 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 102.4 vs Philadelphia Phillies 102.6 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 5.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.73 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 1.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.12 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 7.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies 9.55 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 4.05 vs Philadelphia Phillies -1.04 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 7.53 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6.35 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 1.74 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.53 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 3.45 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.92 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 14.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 14.7 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Mets 0.409 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.387 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.580 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.559 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.391 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.468 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.468 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.678 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.380 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.404 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.498 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.523 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets 0.824 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.655 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.029 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.017 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets does not clearly favor either side.

New York Mets 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -0.17 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.17 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (BetOnline.ag)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 3, New York Mets 13 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.