← All picks for August 22, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays
August 22, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans St. Louis Cardinals
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (20 edges vs 4 for Tampa Bay Rays).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.350 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.450 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays -1.50 vs St. Louis Cardinals -0.80 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 3.50 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.10 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 5 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.90 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 1.048 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.301 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season to date — Mixed
Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays.
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.43 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.19 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 4.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.36 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.167 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.600 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 96.9 vs St. Louis Cardinals 97.4 — roughly even
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Tampa Bay Rays 5.06 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.21 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 1.65 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.32 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 7.09 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.86 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays -1.67 vs St. Louis Cardinals -1.94 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 5.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.15 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 1.16 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.62 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 5.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.88 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 28.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 25.7 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Offense & matchup — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.320 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.356 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.429 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.421 — roughly even
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.329 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.369 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.341 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.410 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.324 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.385 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.417 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.478 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.643 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.406 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays 0.005 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.029 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Tampa Bay Rays 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Tampa Bay Rays -3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Betting Lines
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
St. Louis Cardinals 6, Tampa Bay Rays 10 — Tampa Bay Rays win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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