New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals

August 16, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (15 edges vs 7 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.450 vs New York Yankees 0.450 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals -0.90 vs New York Yankees -0.75 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 3.40 vs New York Yankees 4.30 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 4.30 vs New York Yankees 5.05 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 0.784 vs New York Yankees 1.085 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

St. Louis Cardinals 4.10 vs New York Yankees 5.01 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 4.27 vs New York Yankees 4.27 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.429 vs New York Yankees 0.286 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 97.3 vs New York Yankees 105.4 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals 6.26 vs New York Yankees 6.12 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 1.43 vs New York Yankees 1.76 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 9.88 vs New York Yankees 8.64 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 9.54 vs New York Yankees 1.35 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 2.38 vs New York Yankees 3.86 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 0.97 vs New York Yankees 1.19 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 2.88 vs New York Yankees 3.43 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 12.3 vs New York Yankees 12.3 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

St. Louis Cardinals 0.355 vs New York Yankees 0.356 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.406 vs New York Yankees 0.459 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 0.353 vs New York Yankees 0.389 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 0.486 vs New York Yankees 0.514 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 0.377 vs New York Yankees 0.402 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 0.473 vs New York Yankees 0.545 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals 0.782 vs New York Yankees 0.818 — roughly even
St. Louis Cardinals 0.022 vs New York Yankees 0.045 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

St. Louis Cardinals 0 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans New York Yankees
St. Louis Cardinals -1 vs New York Yankees 1 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 12, St. Louis Cardinals 8 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.