← All picks for August 4, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
August 4, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Los Angeles Dodgers
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Los Angeles Dodgers (18 edges vs 6 for St. Louis Cardinals).
The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.450 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.350 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.10 vs St. Louis Cardinals -1.20 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 3.75 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.75 — roughly even
- Los Angeles Dodgers 3.65 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.95 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.667 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.711 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.067 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season to date — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 5.14 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.16 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 4.51 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.27 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.222 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 105.8 vs St. Louis Cardinals 97.6 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 2.17 vs St. Louis Cardinals 7.33 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.97 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.54 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 10.24 vs St. Louis Cardinals 10.80 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Los Angeles Dodgers -0.75 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.44 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.84 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.34 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.98 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.18 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 2.30 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.26 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 14.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 12.7 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Offense & matchup — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.366 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.356 — roughly even
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.488 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.422 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.351 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.319 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.495 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.414 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.409 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.396 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.536 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.490 — leans Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.557 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.545 — roughly even
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.043 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.039 — roughly even
Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Los Angeles Dodgers 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.667 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Los Angeles Dodgers -0.67 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.67 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Betting Lines
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)
Final Score
St. Louis Cardinals 3, Los Angeles Dodgers 2 — St. Louis Cardinals win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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