Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees

July 29, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Tampa Bay Rays

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (14 edges vs 8 for Tampa Bay Rays).

Note: the model leans Tampa Bay Rays even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.450 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.300 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.50 vs Tampa Bay Rays -0.65 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.25 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.80 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.75 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.45 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 0.333 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.333 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.635 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.614 — roughly even

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.09 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.60 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.22 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.07 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.500 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.214 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 106.9 vs Tampa Bay Rays 98.6 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Tampa Bay Rays.

New York Yankees 4.78 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.42 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 1.33 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.63 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 6.49 vs Tampa Bay Rays 8.53 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees -3.43 vs Tampa Bay Rays -3 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 6.46 vs Tampa Bay Rays 5.01 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 1.61 vs Tampa Bay Rays 1.29 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 4.79 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.06 — leans Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees 19.7 vs Tampa Bay Rays 18.3 — leans Tampa Bay Rays

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.361 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.361 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.547 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.409 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.301 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.306 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.496 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.362 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.392 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.369 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.538 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.441 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.939 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.673 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.031 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.008 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs Tampa Bay Rays 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.50 vs Tampa Bay Rays -0.50 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Tampa Bay Rays 5, New York Yankees 7 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.