Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees

July 27, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (18 edges vs 7 for New York Yankees).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Yankees 0.400 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees -0.90 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.25 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 5.65 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 6.55 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.75 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.767 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.933 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.13 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.58 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.24 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.88 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 107.4 vs Philadelphia Phillies 101.9 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Yankees 3.10 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.80 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 1.28 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.77 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 7.76 vs Philadelphia Phillies 11.83 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees -1.35 vs Philadelphia Phillies -3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 7.17 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.08 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 1.64 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.10 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 6.05 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.09 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 18.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 16.7 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.375 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.393 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.572 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.536 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.296 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.375 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.529 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.522 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.397 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.404 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.540 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.508 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.794 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.678 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.022 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.011 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Yankees 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees -6 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 7.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 3, New York Yankees 4 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.