Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees

July 25, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (12 edges vs 10 for New York Yankees).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Yankees 0.450 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.90 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 6 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.25 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 6 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.35 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.333 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.667 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.556 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.176 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.15 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.47 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 4.12 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.87 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.714 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.429 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 107.4 vs Philadelphia Phillies 101.0 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

New York Yankees 5.70 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.29 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 1.82 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.39 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 7.99 vs Philadelphia Phillies 6.59 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.57 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.72 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 3.96 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.10 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 1.28 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.09 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 4.54 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.96 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 18 vs Philadelphia Phillies 19.7 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.381 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.371 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.581 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.490 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.309 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.331 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.463 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.530 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees 0.409 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.402 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.569 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.507 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.655 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.028 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.031 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees does not clearly favor either side.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 10.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 12, New York Yankees 5 — Philadelphia Phillies win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.