New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays

July 22, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Toronto Blue Jays (15 edges vs 9 for New York Yankees).

Note: the model leans New York Yankees even though the simple edge count favors Toronto Blue Jays. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays 0.800 vs New York Yankees 0.450 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 1.50 vs New York Yankees -0.05 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 5.60 vs New York Yankees 5.70 — roughly even
Toronto Blue Jays 4.10 vs New York Yankees 5.75 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 1 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 1.071 vs New York Yankees 0.994 — roughly even

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

Toronto Blue Jays 4.53 vs New York Yankees 5.16 — leans New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays 4.25 vs New York Yankees 4.08 — leans New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays 1 vs New York Yankees 0.273 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 102.2 vs New York Yankees 107.7 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays 4.70 vs New York Yankees 5.06 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 1.26 vs New York Yankees 1.12 — leans New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays 9.39 vs New York Yankees 11.81 — leans New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays 1.05 vs New York Yankees 0 — leans New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays 1.89 vs New York Yankees 3.86 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 1.05 vs New York Yankees 1.04 — roughly even
Toronto Blue Jays 2.57 vs New York Yankees 4.31 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 11 vs New York Yankees 18.3 — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Offense & matchup — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays 0.420 vs New York Yankees 0.387 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 0.534 vs New York Yankees 0.546 — roughly even
Toronto Blue Jays 0.485 vs New York Yankees 0.384 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 0.546 vs New York Yankees 0.478 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 0.416 vs New York Yankees 0.400 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 0.510 vs New York Yankees 0.568 — leans New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays 0.290 vs New York Yankees 0.696 — leans New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays -0.004 vs New York Yankees 0.013 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays 0.667 vs New York Yankees 0.333 — leans Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 0.56 vs New York Yankees -0.56 — leans Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 5, Toronto Blue Jays 4 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.