← All picks for July 22, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies
July 22, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick
Our model leans Colorado Rockies
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned St. Louis Cardinals (15 edges vs 6 for Colorado Rockies).
Note: the model leans Colorado Rockies even though the simple edge count favors St. Louis Cardinals. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.
Matchup Breakdown
Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Colorado Rockies 0.300 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.400 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies -2.30 vs St. Louis Cardinals -1.35 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 3.55 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.75 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 5.85 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.10 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 0.333 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.333 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 1.221 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.889 — leans Colorado Rockies
Season to date — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Colorado Rockies 3.45 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.27 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 5.94 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.21 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 0.364 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.385 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 92.9 vs St. Louis Cardinals 98.7 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Colorado Rockies 9 vs St. Louis Cardinals 13.25 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 1.79 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.49 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 2.62 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.08 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies -2.06 vs St. Louis Cardinals -2.12 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 5.14 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.57 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 1.43 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.04 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 4.20 vs St. Louis Cardinals 2.10 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 14.3 vs St. Louis Cardinals 14 — roughly even
Offense & matchup — leans Colorado Rockies
Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Colorado Rockies.
- Colorado Rockies 0.366 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.368 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 0.481 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.456 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 0.400 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.359 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 0.559 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.412 — leans Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies 0.372 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.399 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies 0.506 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.501 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 0.400 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.412 — roughly even
- Colorado Rockies 0.006 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.030 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Series & head-to-head — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Colorado Rockies 0 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
- Colorado Rockies -4 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Betting Lines
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | O/U 11.5 (DraftKings)
Final Score
St. Louis Cardinals 4, Colorado Rockies 8 — Colorado Rockies win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for
informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial
or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
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