Los Angeles Angels vs New York Mets

July 22, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Los Angeles Angels

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Mets (12 edges vs 10 for Los Angeles Angels).

Note: the model leans Los Angeles Angels even though the simple edge count favors New York Mets. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

New York Mets 0.450 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.450 — roughly even
New York Mets -0.80 vs Los Angeles Angels -0.75 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.85 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.20 — leans Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets 4.65 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.95 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.667 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.333 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.039 vs Los Angeles Angels 1.154 — leans Los Angeles Angels

Season to date — leans New York Mets

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.25 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.42 — leans Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets 3.86 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.03 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.545 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.400 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 100.9 vs Los Angeles Angels 98.7 — roughly even

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

New York Mets 4.94 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.96 — leans Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets 1.18 vs Los Angeles Angels 1.20 — roughly even
New York Mets 8.75 vs Los Angeles Angels 7.56 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.19 vs Los Angeles Angels -2.50 — leans Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets 3.60 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.64 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.28 vs Los Angeles Angels 1.25 — roughly even
New York Mets 3.94 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.52 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 17.7 vs Los Angeles Angels 15 — leans Los Angeles Angels

Offense & matchup — leans Los Angeles Angels

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Los Angeles Angels.

New York Mets 0.365 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.416 — leans Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets 0.443 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.533 — leans Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets 0.369 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.442 — leans Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets 0.420 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.552 — leans Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets 0.385 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.360 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.493 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.486 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.575 vs Los Angeles Angels 0.388 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.020 vs Los Angeles Angels -0.056 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Mets

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1 vs Los Angeles Angels 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 2 vs Los Angeles Angels -2 — leans New York Mets

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (MyBookie.ag)

Final Score

Los Angeles Angels 2, New York Mets 3 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.