Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees

July 12, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (16 edges vs 7 for Chicago Cubs).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.80 vs Chicago Cubs 0.35 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.95 vs Chicago Cubs 5.30 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.15 vs Chicago Cubs 4.95 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 1 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.457 vs Chicago Cubs 0.629 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.24 vs Chicago Cubs 5.29 — roughly even
New York Yankees 4.01 vs Chicago Cubs 4.11 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.800 vs Chicago Cubs 0.364 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 108.9 vs Chicago Cubs 104.5 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Yankees

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 3.48 vs Chicago Cubs 1.55 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 1.03 vs Chicago Cubs 0.66 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 8.71 vs Chicago Cubs 8.07 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees -0.35 vs Chicago Cubs 1.12 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 6.75 vs Chicago Cubs 7.50 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.30 vs Chicago Cubs 1.67 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 5.30 vs Chicago Cubs 5.89 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 17 vs Chicago Cubs 15.3 — leans Chicago Cubs

Offense & matchup — Mixed

The offensive matchup is closely contested between Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.413 vs Chicago Cubs 0.386 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.578 vs Chicago Cubs 0.559 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.335 vs Chicago Cubs 0.285 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.438 vs Chicago Cubs 0.351 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.402 vs Chicago Cubs 0.406 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.545 vs Chicago Cubs 0.566 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 0.673 vs Chicago Cubs 0.800 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees -0.011 vs Chicago Cubs 0.020 — leans Chicago Cubs

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 1 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 11 vs Chicago Cubs -11 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 7.5 (LowVig.ag)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 5, New York Yankees 2 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.