Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres

July 11, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Philadelphia Phillies

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Phillies (15 edges vs 8 for San Diego Padres).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 0.500 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.500 — roughly even
San Diego Padres -0.80 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.60 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 3.05 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.20 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 3.85 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.60 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.667 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.333 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.765 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.349 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season to date — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 3.97 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.48 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 3.91 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.80 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0.615 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.400 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 94.8 vs Philadelphia Phillies 101.0 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 3.18 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.89 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 1.19 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.02 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 10.32 vs Philadelphia Phillies 9.18 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres -0.71 vs Philadelphia Phillies -1.58 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 2.22 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.98 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 1.06 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.13 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 3.24 vs Philadelphia Phillies 2.36 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 27.7 vs Philadelphia Phillies 7.3 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Offense & matchup — leans San Diego Padres

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres 0.361 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.380 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.418 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.473 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres 0.414 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.399 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.473 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.461 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0.419 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.403 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.489 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.502 — roughly even
San Diego Padres 0.806 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.649 — leans San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 0.059 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.023 — leans San Diego Padres

Series & head-to-head — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Philadelphia Phillies.

San Diego Padres 0.250 vs Philadelphia Phillies 0.750 — leans Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres -1.50 vs Philadelphia Phillies 1.50 — leans Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Lines

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Philadelphia Phillies 2, San Diego Padres 4 — San Diego Padres win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.