Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees

July 11, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago Cubs

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (12 edges vs 8 for Chicago Cubs).

Note: the model leans Chicago Cubs even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.45 vs Chicago Cubs 0.85 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 5.75 vs Chicago Cubs 5.65 — roughly even
New York Yankees 5.30 vs Chicago Cubs 4.80 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 1 vs Chicago Cubs 0.333 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.449 vs Chicago Cubs 0.649 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 5.18 vs Chicago Cubs 5.35 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 4.05 vs Chicago Cubs 4.03 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.800 vs Chicago Cubs 0.400 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 108.3 vs Chicago Cubs 105.0 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Chicago Cubs

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

New York Yankees 4.67 vs Chicago Cubs 2.38 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 1.30 vs Chicago Cubs 0.97 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 8 vs Chicago Cubs 3.18 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 1.69 vs Chicago Cubs 2.14 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 7.36 vs Chicago Cubs 5.64 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 1.32 vs Chicago Cubs 1.43 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 6.33 vs Chicago Cubs 5.38 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees 19 vs Chicago Cubs 20 — roughly even

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees 0.412 vs Chicago Cubs 0.395 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.574 vs Chicago Cubs 0.576 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0.404 vs Chicago Cubs 0.303 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.638 vs Chicago Cubs 0.373 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.407 vs Chicago Cubs 0.386 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.550 vs Chicago Cubs 0.502 — leans New York Yankees
New York Yankees 0.696 vs Chicago Cubs 0.794 — leans Chicago Cubs
New York Yankees -0.006 vs Chicago Cubs -0.009 — roughly even

Series & head-to-head — Mixed

Head-to-head history between Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees does not clearly favor either side.

New York Yankees 0.500 vs Chicago Cubs 0.500 — roughly even
New York Yankees 0 vs Chicago Cubs 0 — roughly even

Betting Lines

New York Yankees -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (Fanatics)

Final Score

Chicago Cubs 0, New York Yankees 11 — New York Yankees win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.