New York Yankees vs New York Mets

July 5, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Yankees

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (16 edges vs 7 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0.300 vs New York Yankees 0.300 — roughly even
New York Mets -2.65 vs New York Yankees -0.35 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 3.10 vs New York Yankees 4.15 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 5.75 vs New York Yankees 4.50 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 1 vs New York Yankees 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.720 vs New York Yankees 1.526 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 4.24 vs New York Yankees 5.06 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 3.80 vs New York Yankees 3.94 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.455 vs New York Yankees 0.100 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 101.5 vs New York Yankees 107.6 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — Mixed

The starting pitching matchup between New York Yankees and New York Mets grades out as a toss-up based on recent outings.

New York Mets 7.59 vs New York Yankees 4.33 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 1.64 vs New York Yankees 1.22 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 12.66 vs New York Yankees 8.33 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.74 vs New York Yankees 2.12 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 6.84 vs New York Yankees 10.29 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.78 vs New York Yankees 1.86 — roughly even
New York Mets 6.90 vs New York Yankees 6.81 — roughly even
New York Mets 26.3 vs New York Yankees 21 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0.342 vs New York Yankees 0.382 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.443 vs New York Yankees 0.485 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.290 vs New York Yankees 0.434 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.363 vs New York Yankees 0.589 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.386 vs New York Yankees 0.410 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.519 vs New York Yankees 0.567 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.678 vs New York Yankees 0.818 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.044 vs New York Yankees 0.028 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0.500 vs New York Yankees 0.500 — roughly even
New York Mets -2 vs New York Yankees 2 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Yankees +1.5 | O/U 8.5 (DraftKings)

Final Score

New York Yankees 6, New York Mets 12 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.