New York Yankees vs New York Mets

July 4, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans New York Mets

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Yankees (18 edges vs 8 for New York Mets).

Note: the model leans New York Mets even though the simple edge count favors New York Yankees. This can happen because the model weighs each input differently — a single large advantage (like a dominant pitching matchup or a significant offensive gap) can outweigh several smaller edges on the other side. The edge count treats every metric equally, but the model does not.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans New York Yankees

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0.250 vs New York Yankees 0.300 — roughly even
New York Mets -2.80 vs New York Yankees -0.35 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 3.05 vs New York Yankees 3.95 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 5.85 vs New York Yankees 4.30 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.667 vs New York Yankees 0 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.311 vs New York Yankees 1.603 — leans New York Yankees

Season to date — leans New York Yankees

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 4.22 vs New York Yankees 5.06 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 3.79 vs New York Yankees 3.92 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.364 vs New York Yankees 0.100 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 101.1 vs New York Yankees 107.5 — leans New York Yankees

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans New York Mets

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the New York Mets.

New York Mets 1.50 vs New York Yankees 9.68 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.83 vs New York Yankees 1.92 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 7.50 vs New York Yankees 4.58 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0 vs New York Yankees -1.13 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 7.85 vs New York Yankees 9.86 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 1.81 vs New York Yankees 2 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 6.27 vs New York Yankees 5.86 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 28.7 vs New York Yankees 21 — leans New York Yankees

Offense & matchup — leans New York Yankees

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0.342 vs New York Yankees 0.373 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.435 vs New York Yankees 0.463 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.332 vs New York Yankees 0.467 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.379 vs New York Yankees 0.610 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.388 vs New York Yankees 0.424 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.523 vs New York Yankees 0.549 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets 0.824 vs New York Yankees 0.673 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.046 vs New York Yankees 0.052 — leans New York Yankees

Series & head-to-head — leans New York Yankees

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the New York Yankees.

New York Mets 0.333 vs New York Yankees 0.667 — leans New York Yankees
New York Mets -3 vs New York Yankees 3 — leans New York Yankees

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

New York Yankees 5, New York Mets 6 — New York Mets win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.