St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

July 4, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Chicago Cubs

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Cubs (15 edges vs 7 for St. Louis Cardinals).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — Mixed

Recent form factors are roughly even between St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, with neither team showing a clear edge in their last ten games.

Chicago Cubs 0.550 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.550 — roughly even
Chicago Cubs 0.30 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.75 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs 4.40 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.35 — roughly even
Chicago Cubs 4.10 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.60 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.833 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0 — leans Chicago Cubs

Season to date — leans Chicago Cubs

Season-long stats including runs scored and allowed per game, home/road splits, and weighted offensive production (wRC+) the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 5.27 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.29 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 4.03 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.95 — roughly even
Chicago Cubs 0.615 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.538 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 104.1 vs St. Louis Cardinals 98.9 — leans Chicago Cubs

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Chicago Cubs

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 5.19 vs St. Louis Cardinals 6.58 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 1.35 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.46 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 4.50 vs St. Louis Cardinals 7.62 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs -0.19 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.80 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.43 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.53 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.81 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.02 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 3.34 vs St. Louis Cardinals 1.91 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs 17 vs St. Louis Cardinals 13.7 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Offense & matchup — leans Chicago Cubs

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 0.364 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.360 — roughly even
Chicago Cubs 0.512 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.451 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.467 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.384 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.612 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.546 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.368 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.416 — leans St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs 0.480 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.478 — roughly even
Chicago Cubs 0.673 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.510 — leans Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 0.004 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.057 — leans St. Louis Cardinals

Series & head-to-head — leans Chicago Cubs

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs 0.500 vs St. Louis Cardinals 0.500 — roughly even
Chicago Cubs 1 vs St. Louis Cardinals -1 — leans Chicago Cubs

Betting Lines

Chicago Cubs -1.5 | O/U 9.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

St. Louis Cardinals 3, Chicago Cubs 11 — Chicago Cubs win — Model pick was correct

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.