Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets

July 3, 2025 — MLB Prediction & Betting Pick

Our model leans Milwaukee Brewers

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Milwaukee Brewers (18 edges vs 8 for New York Mets).

The model's lean aligns with the overall edge count. Both the machine-learning model and the raw feature comparison point the same direction for this game.

Matchup Breakdown

Recent form (last ~10 games) — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Looking at recent performance trends over the last ten games — including win rate, run differential, and offensive momentum — the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.

New York Mets 0.250 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.600 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets -2.80 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.85 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 3.10 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.50 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 5.90 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.65 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 0.333 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.333 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.968 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.606 — leans New York Mets

Season to date — Mixed

Season-to-date metrics are closely matched between Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets.

New York Mets 4.24 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.62 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 3.81 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.98 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.364 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.556 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 101.2 vs Milwaukee Brewers 97.3 — leans New York Mets

Starting pitching (recent starts) — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Evaluating the probable starters based on recent ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, and pitching form trends, the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.

New York Mets 4.55 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.15 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 1.33 vs Milwaukee Brewers 1.65 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 6.82 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.88 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets -5.81 vs Milwaukee Brewers -2.71 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 8.80 vs Milwaukee Brewers 2.49 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 1.96 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.97 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 7.08 vs Milwaukee Brewers 2.73 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 29.7 vs Milwaukee Brewers 21.7 — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Offense & matchup — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Analyzing recent offensive output (OBP, SLG) and platoon matchup data against the opposing starter's throwing arm, the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.

New York Mets 0.347 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.407 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 0.448 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.533 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 0.312 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.451 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 0.354 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.608 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 0.394 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.406 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets 0.510 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.452 — leans New York Mets
New York Mets 0.806 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.806 — roughly even
New York Mets 0.048 vs Milwaukee Brewers -0.002 — leans New York Mets

Series & head-to-head — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Prior head-to-head meetings this season's training window — win rate and run differential between these clubs — the matchup favors the Milwaukee Brewers.

New York Mets 0.333 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.667 — leans Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets -0.33 vs Milwaukee Brewers 0.33 — leans Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Lines

New York Mets -1.5 | O/U 8.5 (FanDuel)

Final Score

Milwaukee Brewers 2, New York Mets 3 — New York Mets win — Model pick was incorrect

This analysis is generated by a machine-learning model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.